Making better decisions

1. Focus on the right decisions

Focus on hard-to-reverse decisions about highly consequential root problems

Define the root problem by asking yourself: What would have to be true for the problem you are tackling not to be an issue in the first place?

Create proper space for defining the problem, before you dive into the solution. Never accept anyone else’s definition of the problem.

Delegate reversible or low consequence decisions quickly to the level of those most impacted. The information and speed you gain by acting quickly will trump the occasional mis-step.

2. Take time over key decisions

Take as long as you need, until:

STOP - you have stopped gathering useful information
FLOP - you’re starting to miss opportunities
KNOW - you’ve gathered a critical piece of information.

3. Adopt a process for making key decisions

(i) Break down your decisions into as many reversible, less consequential chunks as you can. You can decide on these chunks quickly.

(ii) Identify your top objectives. Do this by making your objectives battle each other - if you had to pick one, which would you pick?

(iii) Identify decision variables by asking people who have similar decisions:

What are the variables you would use to make this decision?
What do you know about the problem that I don't?
What would be your decision making process?

(iv) Identify possible solutions

Reason from first principles.

Back-cast - imagine the best and worst case scenarios, then think about what you did to arrive there.

Ask yourself - what would this look like if it were easy? Complexity will invite itself to your door at every turn - keep turning it away.

Force yourself to come up with at least one creative option, which ideally combines the obvious solutions.

Eliminate options which could lead to really bad outcomes.

(v) Make a preliminary decision

Evaluate the expected value of each potential solution by reference to the decision variables you identified above. This will require being comfortable making back-of-envelope predictions about the likelihood of different outcomes. Do this by:

Subdividing problems into specific unknowns.
Taking an ‘outside view’ perspective before examining your own personal' ‘inside view’.
Being conscious of the human tendency towards scope and time insensitivity.

Anticipate how each option would play out over time, looking for second and third-order consequences.

Evaluate how predictable and stable the outcomes of your decision are.

Explore the opportunity cost of each solution - what are you giving up with your decision?

Don’t forget to make a decision about how your future self will make future decisions. When certain signposts are reached (negative signs, positive signs, and absence of positive signs), plan a ‘tripwire’ response.

4. Make a final decision

Sleep on all key decisions- especially ‘who’ decisions. Check in with your rational and emotional self.

Seek out evidence to disconfirm your final decision before you make it.

Don’t make a final decision when you are: